3 Stock to Invest in for 2012

by on January 25, 2012

With the Euro Crisis still making the headlines and no end in sight, world markets remain in turmoil. Knowing where to invest is a big issue many are facing. In this post I’ll share 3 stocks I’m investing in in 2012 and explain the reasons I’m investing in them.

1. Apple

I recently wrote about the 7 reasons to invest in Apple. When I look around companies to invest in there really aren’t that many at the minute where I feel comfortable in their ability to keep customers buying more of their products during a global recession.

It’s two main products (iPhone/Smart phone and iPad/tablet) are both in markets that are experiencing rapid global growth. In both markets Apple is positioned at the premium end of the market, the company that is setting the benchmark for al others to follow.

Apple’s recent history of product development, and in fact market creation (think iPod, smart phone, tablets) is phenomenal. It has a history of creating products that become must haves for customers and I see no reason for this to stop. While it doesn’t currently pay a dividend I think there is potential for strong future growth.

2. BP

BP has been through a tumultuous couple of years. After seeing it’s share prices crash following the Deep Water Horizon drilling disaster in the gulf of Mexico (when the stock plunged from about £6.50 down to about £3.05

Perhaps one of the best reasons to own BP at the minute is because of it’s dividend yield of 3.64%. With global economies struggling for growth and interest rates across the developed western economies at an all time low such a high yield is an attractive prospect.

Post crisis the company had to raise significant capital in order to fund the clean up and reserve against future litigation and claim. As a result the company sold of many of it’s non-core assets. At the time the market deemed this necessary however in the long run I believe it forced BP to shed it’s non core assets. As a result the company is leaner than it was pre-crisis and is now focusing on it’s core competencies of exploration, deep water extraction and managing large oil fields.

The cynical would say that Uncle Sam’s thirst for Oil far outweighs their outrage at the company for the handling of the disaster. The facts are that drilling for oil has now resumed in the Gulf of Mexico.

In summary I view BP as having both good growth and yield potential. It’s re-focused strategy and recovery post crisis has the potential to offer the investor capital growth while at the same time the company is back to paying decent dividends.

3. Vodafone

While Vodafone is susceptible like most companies to a global slowdown, it is ell placed to be less affected than most. The way the mobile industry works is to tie in customers to increasingly long contracts (2 years is now common practice). Vodafone’s market share and expansion into Emerging Markets means it is well placed to resist any economic downturn.

You can see Vodafone’s defensive nature in it’s historic stock price. In the short term while the Euro crisis has been developing and markets have been plummeting it has traded steadily in the range of 160-170. In fact in the last 6 months the price trend has been an upward trend.

Finally, as with BP the dividend yield of Vodafone is a very attractive 5.19%. With interest rates at an all time low this type of yield is a must for any portfolio.

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There’s no denying that Apple is one of the big corporate success storys of the last 10 years. 2011 however saw the death of it’s iconic leader and CEO Steve Jobs. How will this affect the company? Is it still a good investment?

In this post I’ll set out 7 compelling reasons why you should still invest in Apple stock.

1. Stick to What You Know

Warren Buffet is often quoted as saying he only invests in companies he understands. I try to follow the same advice and my investment in Apple is a great example of this. I’m a big believer in the products that Apple produces, which helps me buy into the future stock value.

I believe in investing in companies I can see are doing well, not just relying on technical analysis, financial ratios and research analysts to pick winners. Everyday when I get on the train to go to work i’m amazed at how quickly apple products are being adopted by those around me. It seems like more and more commuters are sitting there every day pulling out not just their iphone’s (long the commuters phone of choice) but also their iPad’s and MacBookPro’s. I often see people with all three, and not just young techie geeks like me, even the pensioners are getting Apple’d up!

2. It’s Recession Proof

Ok, no company is recession proof however Apple should weather a global recession better than most. Most of it’s revenues come from the premium end of the market, which by default has a higher disposable income than the lower end. This higher end is more likely to keep buying shiny new iPads and iPhones despite the global recession.

3. Apple isn’t a Cult

I held off from buying  Mac for many years. Despite various friends and colleagues eulogizing about how good Apple products were I dismissed them as tools of the Media industry cult. Being quite tech savvy I resisted and stuck with my windows machine. Once I purchased an iPhone 3G, I started to think a bit differently, not only was it a beautifully designed machine, it was incredibly functional.

After finally biting the bullet on a Mac Book Pro, I will never go back to Windows. I’ve recently replaced my PC with a Mac Mini and also acquired an iPad and I doubt i’ll ever own a Windows machine again. I’ve yet to meet someone who’s gone back to Windows after trying Apple.

4. Up sell and Lock Down

Apple is taking some key features of it’s mobile operating system iOS and embedding them in it’s Mac operating system Mac OS. Key to this is the concept of the App Store whereby all iPhone and iPad users have to buy all software/apps through the store. This software selling model has two big benefits for Apple:

Firstly it means Apple gets a large slice of every app sold. Developers hate it but Apple of course doesn’t care.

Secondly it means Apple can control what apps or software get installed on our devices. This means all software get tested and has to meet Apple’s standards which means Apple can ensure most users get bug free (as far as possible) and stable virus free software which will hopefully avoid the crashes and slowing down of hardware that windows machines are now famous for.

Apple recently released the App store to Mac OS and I believe has the aim to get it’s Mac users to a state where all software is locked down and purchased via the app store. This can only mean more revenue and profit for Aple in the long run.

5. Product Life Cycles

I believe Apple’s iPhones and iPads are still i the early phases of their product life cycles. If you look at what Apple did with the iPod it initially released it as a high end luxury item in 2001 targeting a small premium market with high prices. It wasn’t until 2006 that it released the iPod Shuffle which was aimed squarely at the lower end mass market with limited functionality and affordable prices.

The above strategy was simple. Establish the brand as a desirable, premium product that everyone wants and only a few can afford. Refine the product, supply chain then release a mass market version and dominate the market.

While it already dominates the top end of the smart phone market I don’t think it will be long before Apple releases a ‘iPhone Lite’ aimed at the mass market, the one that manufacturers like Samsung and HTC are dominating. The potential there is huge, especially when you consider the huge growing demand for Smart phones in the Emerging Markets. When it does this, I believe consumer demand will guarantee a massive boost in revenues for Apple, raising the stock price in the process.

6. Apple’s Cash Mountain

Another compelling reason to like Apple is it’s huge cash pile. At last count it had over $80 billion squirreled away in cash or short term marketable securities. This is a huge amount of money and a figure that is growing quickly.

What will Apple do with all of this spare cash? Well there are two main options:

i) Start paying dividends to shareholders – great for existing shareholders

ii) Make a huge strategic acquisition, possibly of a competitor. Regarding this second point I have a theory that the company might have it’s sights set on Google. It’s current Market Cap is $200 billion. The late CEO of Apple Steve Job’s hate of Apple was well documented in the media and I have a theory that the companies aim is to swallow up the search engine giant it believe stole it’s software with the release of Android.

7. Future Product Releases

So what next for Apple? I believe it’s next big product will be related to TV. It has experimented with the Apple TV, and helped users build home media centers by incorporating HDMI ports onto it’s Mac Mini devices.

I think Apple has probably realized that now domestic broadband speeds are capable of streaming HD quality video (ok, not everywhere but we’re nearly there) and it needs to be there with a kick ass product that’ll make it easy and pleasurable for us to access the TV, video and Internet we want to from the comfort of out sofas.

The company has a great track record of creating devices that blend internet and media on non ‘computer’ devices (think how the use off apps merge the internet with our smart phones and tablets) so I’d be amazed if they didn’t do the same for televisions in the next couple of years.

Summary

I initially bought Apple back in December 2009 just before it launched the iPad 1. Since then the share price has more than doubled to it’s current level of $424.70. At this level I still think the stock is a buy for the reasons set out above. I think the prospect for further growth or big dividend payouts makes this stock a keeper for 2012, particularly as the company is still managing to raise revenues significantly despite the world wide financial crisis and threat of recession.

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